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Unpredictable event
- ‘A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.
www.ig.com/en/news-and-trade-ideas/black-swan-theory-explained--what-is-a-black-swan-event--200703Black Swan theory explained: what is a Black Swan event? - IG
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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
Jul 8, 2022 · The true Black Swan of this film is Nina’s mental illness. Be it schizophrenia, or multiple personality disorder, or whatever else you want to call it, this is the only problem in her life. This is the thing that takes away everything, even her own self.
Oct 1, 2024 · A black swan event is unexpected and therefore difficult to prepare for but is often rationalized with the benefit of hindsight as having been unavoidable. The earliest known reference to the term black swan occurs in the Roman poet Juvenal’s poem Satire VI, in which he describes potential qualities of a woman worthy of marriage. His line ...
- Human Nature
- Flawed Methods
- Difficulties of Prediction
- If You Can’T Predict, How Do You Deal with Uncertainty?
Because of various habits innate to our species—our penchant for telling stories, our belief in cause and effect, our tendency to “cluster” around specific ideas (confirmation bias) and “tunnel” into specific disciplines or methods (specialization)—we tend to miss or minimize randomness’s effect on our lives. Experts are no less guilty of this blin...
Because experts both (1) “tunnel” into the norms of their particular discipline and (2) base their predictive models exclusively on past events, their predictions are inevitably susceptible to the extremely random and unforeseen. Consider, for example, a financial analyst predicting the price of a barrel of oil in ten years. This analyst may build ...
According to black swan theory, the central problem with experts is their uncritical belief in the possibility of prediction, despite the mountain of evidence that indicates prediction is a fool’s errand. Some key illustrations of the futility of prediction include:
Although Taleb is far more concerned with explaining why prediction is impossible than he is with proposing alternatives or solutions, he does offer some strategies for dealing with radical uncertainty in his black swan theory.
Aug 9, 2021 · The term black swan originates from the historical European belief that all swans are white because all swans observed and recorded up to a certain point had white feathers – and therefore a...
- 1 min
- Samuel Webb
Apr 30, 2020 · But this still leaves the question: Can COVID-19 be considered a black swan? Let’s look at some of the facts and place them against the three attributes set out by Taleb. Attribute one: Is the ...
Jul 3, 2020 · Black Swan theory explained: what is a Black Swan event? The world is currently living through a Black Swan event as the coronavirus continues to cause chaos. We explain what Black Swan events are and what they mean for investors.
