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Jun 7, 2020 · A couple of things are obvious: reroll all is always better than reroll 1s (except when you hit on 2s, when it's a wash); +1 to hit is always better than rerolls 1s (because one face producing an extra hit is better than one face producing the chance of an extra hit).
- Gatekeeping Rolls
- The Influence of Rerolls on Gatekeeping Rolls
- The Influence of Modifiers on Gatekeeping Rolls
- Major Takeaways
- Driving Rolls
- The Influence of Re-Rolls on Driving Rolls
- The Influence of Modifiers on Driving Rolls
The hit, wound, save, and FNP rolls all serve the same purpose; reducing the probability of success. Probability can only be decreased, and because a roll of 1 always fails we have a “baseline” probability that can never be improved. Assuming “perfect” conditions of a 2+ to hit, 2+ to wound, and no save or FNP, the highest probability that an unmod...
Regardless of the roll, re-rolls provide a fixed alteration to the probability in the form of a 16.7% (1/6) increase for every number that is re-rolled. So re-rolling 1s gives a 16.7% boost, re-rolling 1s and 2s provides a 33% improvement, etc. In other words the influence of a Primaris Captain (re-roll 1s to hit) and Primaris Lieutenant (re-roll 1...
The impact of a modifier depends on the initial probability of the roll being modified. Unlike re-rolls, modifiers are not static. Their influence is greater when the probability of success is already low, and the magnitude of the influence is the same regardless of whether the modifier is positive or negative. The table below shows the impact of a...
Gatekeeping rolls only influence probability, and outside of special circumstances each roll does not influence the others.The impact of rerolling a fixed number is a flat 16.7% increase in probability per number; rerolling 1s or 2s would improve your chance of success by 33%.The effect of rerolls is multiplicative between rolls; rerolling 1s on the hit and wound roll has a cumulative improvement of 36%.The effect of a modifier is inversely proportional to the probability of the roll; the worse your chances of success, the greater the impact of a modifier to that roll.In contrast to gatekeeping rolls, driving rolls directly influence the final outcome by determining either the number of wounds, or the number of attacks, that are dealt to the target. From a mathematical perspective both driving rolls have an equal influence on the total wounds dealt to the target. In other words the total damage dealt to a target...
Because driving rolls produce a quantitative result (number of shots) instead of a binary result (pass/fail) some additional strategy is required when considering when to use a re-roll. The most important thing is to consider the expected value of the die being re-rolled; from a mathematical perspective you should only use a re-roll when the die va...
The influence of modifiers is fairly simple; it’s a flat increase proportional to the roll being made. For example adding 1 damage to a 1d3 weapon is a 50% increase (the expected value of 1d3 is 2, dividing 3 by 2 is 150%). The most important thing to remember is that the effect of an additive modifiers (+1 attacks, +1 damage) is reduced as the num...
Aug 8, 2005 · As a matter of probability and averages, the +1 damage looks better over the long run -- after all, +1 on a 20-sider attack die is actually only worth 5 percent, so it requires +2 to make for an equal pick to +1 damage.
A: Re-rolls always happen before modifiers, so the re-roll ability is triggered before applying modifiers. For example, let’s imagine a Space Marine (Ballistic Skill 3+) moves and fires a heavy bolter (a Heavy 3 weapon) whilst within range of a Space Marine Captain’s Rites of Battle ability (allowing you to re-roll hit rolls of 1).
May 20, 2022 · I've found that for attacking any AC that she could normally hit, say AC 15, the Super Advantage (rolling 3d20's) hit the AC 91% extremely consistently (almost to a fault), whereas regular Advantage with an additional +1 to hit only hit the target 84% of the time, with a +/- 1% variance.
If you pick up a +1 to your Attack Bonus, you are now at +8 Attack Bonus vs AC 18. Now, you only have to roll a 10 or better. 11 out of the 20 possible results on a d20 apply a hit, and thus you have a 55% chance to hit. Thus: A +1 Bonus has improved your chance to hit by 5%.
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Sep 11, 2023 · The chance of hitting and wounding the Land Raider is the chance of a Critical Hit (17%) plus the chance of hitting the target with a non-critical hit and wounding it (8%), or 25%. Since 25% is greater than 17% you would want to re-roll and try again.
