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1. theconversation.com › is-global-fertility-reallyIs global fertility really plummeting? How population ...

   theconversation.com › is-global-fertility-really

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   Jul 21, 2020 · To predict how global population will evolve over the next century, we must make predictions about two key components of population change: mortality and fertility.

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     1.2 Demographic Concepts: Fertility

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     Fertility crisis: Is modern life making men infertile? - BBC REEL

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     Understanding Fertility and When It Becomes Infertility

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3. www.newyorker.com › 04 › 24The Future of Fertility - The New Yorker

   www.newyorker.com › 04 › 24

   Apr 17, 2023 · Brave New World Dept. The Future of Fertility. A new crop of biotech startups want to revolutionize human reproduction. By Emily Witt. April 17, 2023. Researchers are attempting to make egg...

4. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov › pmc › articlesWhat if fertility decline is not permanent? The need for an ...

   www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov › pmc › articles

   Apr 4, 2016 · Explaining fertility change in humans is as crucial as it is difficult. Crucial, because it is the primary source of error for population forecasts [ 1, 2] as well as a major determinant of future population structure, size, and growth rate [ 3 ].

   • Author: Oskar F. Burger, John P. DeLong
   • DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2015.0157

   • Publish Year: 2016
   • Published: 2016/04/04

5. link.springer.com › chapter › 10How Low Will It Go? Projecting Future Fertility | SpringerLink

   link.springer.com › chapter › 10

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   Apr 1, 2022 · The future of fertility will depend to a considerable extent on how factors like female educational attainment, contraceptive use, changes in religious affiliation and adherence, and the cost of childbearing develop, as well as unexpected economic and political events and natural disasters.

   • Email: vegard.skirbekk@fhi.no

6. www.ageing.ox.ac.uk › files › ageing_horizons_7_lutzThe Future of Human Reproduction: Will Birth Rates Recover or ...

   www.ageing.ox.ac.uk › files › ageing_horizons_7_lutz

   Explanations and projections of fertility trends in different parts of the world have been generally guided by the para-digm of demographic transition which assumes that after an initial decline in death rates, birth rates – after a certain lag – start to fall.

7. ourworldindata.org › population-projectionsThe UN has made population projections for more than 50 years ...

   ourworldindata.org › population-projections

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   Jun 20, 2023 · This update, of course, came from an improved understanding of how fertility rates and other demographic indicators were changing across the world. But it highlights how hard it is to predict these changes for every country, 50 to 100 years into the future.

8. People also ask

   Do population scientists expect low future fertility?

   • The population science literature suggests so. In a survey, many population scientists expected low future fertility .

   Long-term population projections: Scenarios of low or rebounding fertility

   journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0298190

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   What would happen if the fertility rate increased 50 years later?

   • But if the increase starts even fifty years later (in 2175), then the long-run size of the population would be as low as 2 to 4 billion, if the initial fertility rate was low, rather than around 8 billion if either the initial fertility level was higher or the increase started earlier.

   Long-term population projections: Scenarios of low or rebounding fertility

   journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0298190

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   What is a fertility increase scenario?

   • A fertility increase scenario has two phases: first, the initial convergence after 2100 towards a long-run fertility rate (as described above); and second, a transition in a specified year towards replacement fertility. In the long-run the second phase approaches a stationary population with fixed fertility and mortality rates and zero growth.

   Long-term population projections: Scenarios of low or rebounding fertility

   journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0298190

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   Why is fertility declining?

   • Approximately two-thirds of the global population now live in a country with a fertility rate that is below replacement level . Declines in fertility to sub-replacement levels can be at least partially explained by improvements in the alternatives to having a child.

   Long-term population projections: Scenarios of low or rebounding fertility

   journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0298190

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   What happens if low fertility is sustained for just a few centuries?

   • What the model can tell us is that if low fertility is sustained for just a few centuries, then the population size could be quite small. Fig 4 describes consequences for the age structure of the population that the world would converge to. The youth dependency ratio would fall, because there would be few births.

   Long-term population projections: Scenarios of low or rebounding fertility

   journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0298190

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9. journals.plos.org › plosone › articleLong-term population projections: Scenarios of low or ... - PLOS

   journals.plos.org › plosone › article

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   Apr 4, 2024 · Here we provide updated long-term cohort-component population projections and extend the set of scenarios in the literature to include scenarios in which future fertility (a) stays below replacement or (b) recovers and increases. We also characterize old-age dependency ratios.