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Sep 8, 2021 · Every week of the NFL season — including the playoffs — you can decide whether you agree or disagree with FiveThirtyEight’s forecast and then make your own using our interactive game.
- Can You Beat FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Forecasts?
Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm that...
- How Our NFL Predictions Work - FiveThirtyEight
In our NFL research, we found that the ideal K-factor for...
- Can You Beat FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Forecasts?
Pro Football Network's NFL Playoff Predictor allows you to predict each game of the 2024 NFL season to see how it impacts the playoff picture and matchups.
Feb 13, 2022 · Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm that relies on Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game. But beware: We’re asking you to...
- Game Predictions
- The Quarterback Adjustment
- Pregame and Preseason Ratings
- Season Simulations
- The Complete History of The NFL
In essence, Elo assigns every team a power rating (the NFL average is around 1500). Those ratings are then used to generate win probabilities for games, based on the difference in quality between the two teams involved, plus adjustments for changes at starting quarterback, the location of the matchup (including travel distance) and any extra rest d...
New for 2019, New feature Sept. 3, 2019 we added a way to account for changes in performance — and personnel — at quarterback, the game’s most important position. Here’s how it works: 1. Both teams and individual quarterbacks have rolling ratings based on their recent performance. 1.1. Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression betw...
So all of that is how Elo works at the game-by-game level and what goes into our quarterback adjustments. But where do teams’ preseason ratings come from, anyway? We use two sources to set teams’ initial ratings going into a season: 1. At the start of each season, every existing team carries its Elo rating over from the end of the previous season, ...
Now that we know where a team and quarterback’s initial ratings for a season come from and how those ratings update as the schedule plays out, the final piece of our Elo puzzle is how all of that fits in with our NFL interactive graphic, which predicts the entire season. At any point in the season, the interactive lists each team’s up-to-date Elo r...
In conjunction with our Elo interactive, we also have a separate dashboard showing how every team’s Elo rating has risen or fallen throughout history. These charts will help you track when your team was at its best — or worst — along with its ebbs and flows in performance over time. The data in the charts goes back to 1920 (when applicable) and is ...
Get free expert NFL predictions for every game of the 2024-25 season, including our NFL predictions against the spread, money line, and totals. As well as expert analysis and key data and trends for every game.
- You can find all of our predictions for tonight’s NFL games right here on the Pickswise NFL predictions page. Our industry-leading experts provide...
- Here at Pickswise, we have the best free NFL predictions on the market. Our handicappers lean on their decades of experience betting on the NFL to...
- There are many ways to predict an NFL Game. The NFL is a data-driven league and betting on sports is no different. With matchups within matchups, w...
- Here at Pickswise, we always aim to post our NFL predictions for this week at least 48 hours ahead of kickoff. This gives out cappers plenty of tim...
Game Predictions | NFL. Projections will be updated throughout the week based on depth chart and odds movement. Get free expert NFL predictions for today's action. Including ATS, money line and totals predictions on every game, every day brought to you by NBC Sports Edge.
2 days ago · Predictions Methodology. The NFL computer predictions that are listed below are based on a combination of factors. While home field advantage is a major factor, we do not account for specific weather in our projections.
