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1 day ago · The optimistic case for more accurate polls There are two main reasons to be cautiously optimistic that the polls could avoid badly underestimating Mr. Trump yet again. First, the pandemic is over.
- How Accurate, or Off-Target, Could the Polls Be This Year?
Pre-election polls will never perfectly match election...
- Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump - The New York Times
Nationwide, Harris now has her smallest lead in our average...
- How Accurate, or Off-Target, Could the Polls Be This Year?
5 days ago · Even in 2020, when most polls correctly predicted Biden's victory, the "national surveys of the 2020 presidential contest were the least accurate in 40 years," Politico said.
Oct 17, 2024 · Pre-election polls will never perfectly match election results. But an examination of three decades of polling helps put recent misses into context.
4 days ago · Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
2 days ago · Nationwide, Harris now has her smallest lead in our average since the Democratic convention. Most of the major national polls have showed a shift toward Trump since their prior surveys.
Sep 12, 2024 · 538’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodological transparency of each polling organization’s polls. We define accuracy as the average adjusted...
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2 days ago · An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national...