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GM Daniel King examines game 2 of the World Chess Championship 2023 between Ian Nepomniachtchi and Ding Liren. Support on Patreon: 🔥 https://www.patreon.com...
- 20 min
- 29.8K
- PowerPlayChess
Apr 3, 2023 · Prediction by GM Rakhmanov. The World Championship Match 2023 between Ian Nepomniachtchi and Ding Liren will take place in Astana, Kazakhstan, from April 7 to May 1, St. Regis Astana hotel....
Apr 30, 2023 · New World Chess Champion! ️ Interactive ChessGoals Courses - https://chessgoals.com/ The final game of the FIDE World Chess Championship 2023 between Ding Liren and Ian Nepomniachtchi.
- Prediction Methodology
- Classical Segment
- Rapid and Blitz Tiebreaks
- Simulations
- Conclusion
To create the prediction, we first have to understand the parameters of the match. 1. Classical: The match will consist of 14 classical games (two more than title matches before 2021). If one player scores 7.5 points, he is crowned the winner. 2. Rapid: If the match is tied after 14 games, a four-game rapid tiebreak with a 25+10 time controlis play...
Both players were already rated near 2700 ten years ago. Ding Liren took a steeper trajectory to reach the 2800-mark and has been consistently between 2788 and 2816 for the past four-and-a-half years. Nepomniachtchi is at his peak rating of 2795 and appears to be in his prime and still climbing! To gather data for the prediction model, I logged sta...
The odds of the match ending in the classical segment are around 79%, so that format gets the most attention to detail. Past world championships have proven to be closer in classical than rapid and blitz. I will assume that the players will also be closer in rapid than their rating gap dictates. I have Ding Liren as a slight favorite in rapid and N...
Running 1000 simulations on the classical segment, Nepomniachtchi wins 43.1% of the time and Ding Liren 36.2% of the time, with a 20.7% chance of a tiebreaker. Next, I ran another 1000 simulations to estimate the odds of each player winning in the event of the match going to the rapid segment. The same exercise was completed for the blitz tiebreake...
The online odds for this match are about 55-45 for Ian Nepomniachtchi, which is close to my prediction of 54-46. Who do you think will win the match? What do you place the odds at? Let us know in the comments below!
The 2023 FIDE World Championship in Astana, Kazakhstan is the most important over-the-board classical event of the year and decides who will be the next world champion. After a record-breaking...
- 20 min
- 82
- OneShot Chess
Apr 30, 2023 · GM Ding Liren is the new world champion after beating GM Ian Nepomniachtchi in the final rapid tiebreak game of the 2023 FIDE World Championship. Following a 7-7 tie in a thrilling 14-game classical match, it all came down to the final rapid game, which Ding won with Black in sensational style.
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Apr 30, 2023 · A new world chess champion has been crowned, and what a match it has been! Three Sundays ago, on April 9, the first classical game was played, and now, following a nerve-racking rapid playoff, Ding Liren has become the 17 th undisputed holder of the biggest title in chess.
