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Apr 15, 2024 · Globally, most people expect AI to change their jobs, and more than a third expect AI to replace them. Younger generations — Gen Z and millennials — anticipate more substantial effects from AI compared with older generations like Gen X and baby boomers.
- Senior Editor
- IEEE Spectrum
- Investment is Off the Hook. The amount of money pouring into AI is mind-boggling. The most noteworthy gain came in global private investment, which soared from US $46 billion in 2020 to $93.5 billion in 2021.
- The U.S. vs. China Narrative Is Complicated. There’s a fair bit of talk about an AI race between China and the United States these days. “When you see all the news about geopolitical tensions, you would think that the number of collaborations would decrease between those two countries,” says Daniel Zhang, a policy researcher at Stanford’s HAI and editor in chief of this year’s AI Index.
- Applying for a Patent and Getting It Are Two Separate Things. China dominates the world on number of patents applied for; the report states that China accounted for 52 percent of global patent filings in 2021.
- A Plateau in Computer Vision? The field of computer vision has been advancing so rapidly, it’s been hard to keep up with news of the latest accomplishments.
Apr 26, 2024 · Unease towards AI products and services saw a 13 percentage point rise from 2022, with 55% reported to feel nervous. The report also cites Pew data that states that 52% of Americans feel more concerned than excited about AI, up from 38% in 2022.
- What Should We Make of The timelines of Ai Experts?
- The Forecast of The Metaculus Community
- The Forecast by Ajeya Cotra
- What Can We Learn from The Forecasts?
Expert surveys are one piece of information to consider when we think about the future of AI, but we should not overstate the results of these surveys. Experts in a particular technology are not necessarily experts in making predictions about the future of that technology. Experts in many fields do not have a good track record in making forecasts a...
In the big visualization on AI timelines below, I have included the forecast by the Metaculus forecaster community. The forecasters on the online platform Metaculus.com are not experts in AI but people who dedicate their energy to making good forecasts. Research on forecasting has documented that groups of people can assign surprisingly accurate pr...
The last shown forecast stems from the research by Ajeya Cotra, who works for the nonprofit Open Philanthropy.12 In 2020 she published a detailed and influential study asking when the world will see transformative AI. Her timeline is not based on surveys, but on the study of long-term trends in the computation used to train AI systems. I present an...
The visualization shows the forecasts of 1128 people – 812 individual AI experts, the aggregated estimates of 315 forecasters from the Metaculus platform, and the findings of the detailed study by Ajeya Cotra. There are two big takeaways from these forecasts on AI timelines: 1. There is no consensus, and the uncertainty is high. There is huge disag...
The results of this year’s McKinsey Global Survey on AI show the expansion of the technology’s use since we began tracking it five years ago, but with a nuanced picture underneath.1 Adoption has more than doubled since 2017, though the pro-portion of organizations using AI has plateaued between 50 and 60 percent for the past few years.
Apr 15, 2024 · This annual report on the state of AI comes with hundreds of graphs about R&D, corporate adoption, AI education, responsible AI, public opinion, and diversity.
Jan 19, 2022 · McKinsey’s most recent survey on the state of AI in 2022 highlights the importance of best practices, risk management and how businesses can maximize its potential.
