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- Ding Liren won the fourth and final rapid tie-break game against Ian Nepomniachtchi to become the new World Chess Champion.
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Apr 30, 2023 · A new world chess champion has been crowned, and what a match it has been! Three Sundays ago, on April 9, the first classical game was played, and now, following a nerve-racking rapid playoff, Ding Liren has become the 17 th undisputed holder of the biggest title in chess.
By winning game 4 of the rapid tiebreakers — after three draws — Ding Liren became the 17th undisputed world chess champion! Ian Nepomniachtchi seemed to have things under control in the deciding game, and even a bit of an advantage at times, but he overestimated his chances and allowed Ding to get a dangerous passer.
- Chessbase
- Prediction Methodology
- Classical Segment
- Rapid and Blitz Tiebreaks
- Simulations
- Conclusion
To create the prediction, we first have to understand the parameters of the match. 1. Classical: The match will consist of 14 classical games (two more than title matches before 2021). If one player scores 7.5 points, he is crowned the winner. 2. Rapid: If the match is tied after 14 games, a four-game rapid tiebreak with a 25+10 time controlis play...
Both players were already rated near 2700 ten years ago. Ding Liren took a steeper trajectory to reach the 2800-mark and has been consistently between 2788 and 2816 for the past four-and-a-half years. Nepomniachtchi is at his peak rating of 2795 and appears to be in his prime and still climbing! To gather data for the prediction model, I logged sta...
The odds of the match ending in the classical segment are around 79%, so that format gets the most attention to detail. Past world championships have proven to be closer in classical than rapid and blitz. I will assume that the players will also be closer in rapid than their rating gap dictates. I have Ding Liren as a slight favorite in rapid and N...
Running 1000 simulations on the classical segment, Nepomniachtchi wins 43.1% of the time and Ding Liren 36.2% of the time, with a 20.7% chance of a tiebreaker. Next, I ran another 1000 simulations to estimate the odds of each player winning in the event of the match going to the rapid segment. The same exercise was completed for the blitz tiebreake...
The online odds for this match are about 55-45 for Ian Nepomniachtchi, which is close to my prediction of 54-46. Who do you think will win the match? What do you place the odds at? Let us know in the comments below!
Sep 17, 1994 · Ding Liren won the fourth and final rapid tie-break game against Ian Nepomniachtchi to become the new World Chess Champion. It's been an astonishing run of circumstance that's led to Ding becoming Champion including today's hard fought rapid tie-break games.
Apr 30, 2023 · The upcoming classical World Chess Championship match will pit world No. 2 Ian Nepomniachtchi against world No. 3 Ding Liren to determine the successor of Magnus Carlsen, who, despite a...
Apr 8, 2023 · See the current results and standings of the FIDE World Chess Championship 2023 games, updated live.
May 2, 2023 · However, fortune again favored Ding as the 16th World Champion, Magnus Carlsen, announced his abdication from the Classical title. As a result, Ding, as the second placed finisher in the 2022 Candidates, qualified to play the Challenger -- Ian Nepomniachtchi -- to determine the new World Champion.
