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1. www.forbes.com › sites › stephenpastisHere’s How The Presidential Polls Might Be Wrong - Forbes

   www.forbes.com › sites › stephenpastis

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   Oct 25, 2024 · After famously wrong numbers in recent elections, experts can’t say for sure what might be missing from 2024’s presidential polling numbers.

2. theconversation.com › why-the-margin-of-errorWhy the margin of error matters more than ever in reading ...

   theconversation.com › why-the-margin-of-error

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   Oct 23, 2024 · If a poll shows that 47% of the polled group support Candidate A, and the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, that means that the percentage in the population supporting...

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     New poll gives insight into challenges 2024 candidates face in their own parties

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     2024 US election: Trump-Biden presidential rematch met with fatigue by voters, polls show

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     The Data Points That Will Explain The 2024 Election | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

     8 Feb 2024

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4. www.cnn.com › 2024/11/01 › politicsWhat the polls have told us about the 2024 election | CNN ...

   www.cnn.com › 2024/11/01 › politics

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   1 day ago · Polls have found plenty that’s meaningful about how voters think about politics in 2024, including the deep divide in values between supporters of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

5. www.nytimes.com › 2024/10/14 › usWhere Polls Can Mess Up (and What Pollsters Do About It)

   www.nytimes.com › 2024/10/14 › us

   Oct 14, 2024 · There’s measurement error, which can occur when questions are worded in a way or presented in an order that affects the responses — a good reason to take a peek at exact question wording...

6. projects.fivethirtyeight.com › 2024-election-forecastWho Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com › 2024-election-forecast

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   1 day ago · There is a 39-in-100 chance that Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. See a new scenario. 538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,”...

   • Author: G. Elliott Morris

7. projects.fivethirtyeight.com › polls › presidentPresident: general election : 2024 Polls - FiveThirtyEight

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com › polls › president

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   2 days ago · On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of...

8. People also ask

   Are polling errors affecting our 2024 polling averages?

   • A polling average is the best way to understand the state of play in a presidential race, but as we know from previous presidential cycles, the polls aren’t always right. Take a look at how polling errors in the past three presidential elections would affect our current 2024 polling averages. Polling model by Lenny Bronner and Diane Napolitano.

   Who is ahead in Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls right now?

   www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/

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   How do polling averages change in 2024?

   • Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. 95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page.

   President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/

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   Is 2024 presidential election polling accurate?

   • (Photo by Adam GRAY / AFP) (Photo by ADAM GRAY/AFP via Getty Images) Polling for the 2024 presidential election shows candidates in a dead heat, but experts say polling accuracy is complicated.

   Here’s How The Presidential Polls Might Be Wrong

   www.forbes.com/sites/stephenpastis/2024/10/25/heres-how-the-presidential-polls-might-be-wrong/

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   How do voters think about politics in 2024?

   • They’re inherently imprecise. They carry the potential for error. All that being the case, polls this year have found plenty that’s meaningful about how voters think about politics in 2024 – from Americans’ broad-ranging pessimism about the political landscape to the deep divide in values between supporters of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

   What the polls have told us about the 2024 election

   www.cnn.com/2024/11/01/politics/polls-2024-election-harris-trump/index.html

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   Are polls underestimating Trump's popularity in the 2024 election?

   • The “Shy Voter Theory” suggests that Trump supporters are not always truthful about their voting plans, perhaps because they don’t want to admit to a pollster they support Trump. That means polls might be underestimating Trump’s popularity in the 2024 election. Some say this theory explains the inaccurate polling figures in 2016 and 2020.

   Here’s How The Presidential Polls Might Be Wrong

   www.forbes.com/sites/stephenpastis/2024/10/25/heres-how-the-presidential-polls-might-be-wrong/

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   Are Trump poll numbers wrong?

   • Trump Poll Numbers Might Be Wrong President Donald Trump’s intense, typically less engaged voter base has complicated presidential election polling in recent years, and as the election approaches without clear trends in polling data, experts are evaluating the theories behind where 2024’s polling may be accurate—and lacking.

   Here’s How The Presidential Polls Might Be Wrong

   www.forbes.com/sites/stephenpastis/2024/10/25/heres-how-the-presidential-polls-might-be-wrong/

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9. www.washingtonpost.com › elections › interactiveWho is ahead in Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls ...

   www.washingtonpost.com › elections › interactive

   4 days ago · Take a look at how polling errors in the past three presidential elections would affect our current 2024 polling averages. Explore our polling averages in each battleground state Story...