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Aug 13, 2013 · How to interpret odds ratios, confidence intervals and p values with a stepwise progressive approach and a’concept check’ question as each new element is introduced.
We can use odds to compare different probabilities, by computing what is called an odds ratio – which is exactly what it sounds like. For example, let’s say that we want to know how much the positive test increases the individual’s odds of having cancer.
For example, for a probability of 0.05, the odds are terms of odds, not in terms of probabilities. Odds ratios often are 0.05/(1 − 0.05) = 0.052.
What is an odds ratio? An odds ratio (OR) is a measure of association between an exposure and an outcome. The OR represents the odds that an outcome will occur given a particular exposure, compared to the odds of the outcome occurring in the absence of that exposure.
- Magdalena Szumilas
- 2010/08
- 2010
The example illustrates that when the base rate for a condition is very low and the test for the condition is less than perfect there will be a relatively high probability that a positive test is a false positive. Don’t neglect the base rates when evaluating posterior probabilities.
The odds ratio is used when one of two possible events or outcomes are measured, and there is a supposed causative factor. The odds ratio is a versatile and robust statistic. For example, it can calculate the odds of an event happening given a particular treatment intervention (1).
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Odds is a concept that is more familiar to gamblers. The odds is the ratio of the probability that a particular event will occur to the probability that it will not occur, and can be any number between zero and infinity.
