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  1. Why don’t teams pass more? Does the value of passing diminish as you throw more often? Also, does passing efficiency increase if you have a more even play distribution? So we asked...

  2. Jan 22, 2010 · The passing efficiency I used is Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (Adj Net YPA). 'Net' means that sacks and sack yards lost are factored in, and 'Adjusted' means that there is a 45 yard penalty for every interception. The running efficiency I used is straight-up Yards Per Carry (YPC).

  3. Feb 2, 2011 · The results in this analysis suggest that NFL coaches may be more successful if they were to place more emphasis on the passing game than on the running game. This result may translate to lower levels of football (e.g., high school and college).

  4. The following plot illustrates that 13% was the break-even WP at which passing becomes more effective than running, and that the average passing percentage at the break-even win probability is 73%. Figure 6: Optimal Passing Percentage (2019).

  5. Sep 24, 2018 · Strong teams in passing and rushing will have positive efficiency values, or better than the NFL average of zero. NFL playoff teams excel in passing, either by throwing the ball on offense, preventing the pass on defense, or both. From 1998 through 2017, only 39 of 252 playoff teams allowed more yards per pass attempt than they gained.

  6. Teams with 10 or more wins are no more likely to have strong running games than weak or even extremely weak running efficiency. In contrast, the teams with at least 10 wins are far more likely to have had above-average passing efficiency.

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  8. Dec 22, 2016 · In this work we collected and analyzed 7 seasons of NFL play-by-play game data. In particular, we build a descriptive model for the probability of the home team winning an NFL game, which we combine with statistical bootstrap to provide a future matchup prediction (FPM) engine.