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  1. Why don’t teams pass more? Does the value of passing diminish as you throw more often? Also, does passing efficiency increase if you have a more even play distribution? So we asked...

  2. The following plot illustrates that 13% was the break-even WP at which passing becomes more effective than running, and that the average passing percentage at the break-even win probability is 73%. Figure 6: Optimal Passing Percentage (2019).

  3. Sep 6, 2013 · Looking at just yards per attempt, one would think that NFL teams arent more effective at passing now than they were in the middle of the 1950s. But the next stage in the aerial evolution didn’t make the passing game more productive: it made it more consistent.

  4. Feb 2, 2011 · This analysis uses regression analysis to dispel the myth that controlling the rushing game wins NFL games. Final-game rushing and passing statistics are endogenous because teams that are ahead will rush more in order to protect the ball and run the clock down.

  5. Jan 22, 2010 · The passing efficiency I used is Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (Adj Net YPA). 'Net' means that sacks and sack yards lost are factored in, and 'Adjusted' means that there is a 45 yard penalty for every interception. The running efficiency I used is straight-up Yards Per Carry (YPC).

  6. Aug 19, 2020 · The initial findings supported the idea that passing has become more efficient — in 2019, the average yards gained from a pass attempt (PYPA) was 6.73 while the average yards gained from...

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  8. Oct 31, 2021 · Based on the data, there is no large advantage for passing or running on 1st and less than 10. However, on 1st & 10’s, 1st & 15’s, and 1st & 20’s, it is far more advantageous to pass than run, with passes having a success rate at least 10% greater than rushing success rate.