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- 1. Introduction
- 2. Introduction to Appraisal and Evaluation
- 3. The Overarching Policy Framework
- 4. Generating Options and Long-list Appraisal
- 5. Shortlist Options Appraisal
- 6. Valuation of Costs and Benefits
- 7. Presentation of Results
- 8. Monitoring and Evaluation
- 9. A1. Non-market Valuation and Unmonetisable Values
The Green Book is guidance issued by HM Treasury on how to appraise policies, programmes and projects. It also provides guidance on the design and use of monitoring and evaluation before, during and after implementation. Appraisal of alternative policy options is an inseparable part of detailed policy development and design. This guidance concerns the provision of objective advice by public servants to decision makers, which in central government means advice to ministers. In arms-length public organisations the decision makers may be appointed board members, and where local authorities are using the method,[footnote 1] elected council members. The guidance is for all public servants concerned with proposals for the use of public resources, not just for analysts. The key specialisms involved in public policy creation and delivery, from policy at a strategic level to analysis, commercial strategy, procurement, finance, and implementation must work together from the outset to deliver best public value. The Treasury’s five case model is the means of developing proposals in a holistic way that optimises the social / public value produced by the use of public resources. Similarly, there is a requirement for all organisations across government to work together, to ensure delivery of joined up public services.
The Green Book is not a mechanical or deterministic decision-making device. It provides approved thinking models and methods to support the provision of advice to clarify the social – or public – welfare costs, benefits, and trade-offs of alternative implementation options for the delivery of policy objectives.
Use of the Green Book should be informed by an understanding of other HM Treasury guidance:
•Managing Public Money – Which provides guidance on the responsible use of public resources
•The Business Case Guidance for Programmes – Which provides detailed guidance on the development and approval of capital spending programmes
•The Business Case Guidance for Projects – Which provides detailed guidance on the development and approval of capital spending projects
2.1 Principles of appraisal
Appraisal is the process of assessing the costs, benefits and risks of alternative ways to meet government objectives. It helps decision makers to understand the potential effects, trade-offs and overall impact of options by providing an objective evidence base for decision making. Appraisal The appraisal of social value, also known as public value, is based on the principles and ideas of welfare economics and concerns overall social welfare efficiency, not simply economic market efficiency. Social or public value therefore includes all significant costs and benefits that affect the welfare and wellbeing of the population, not just market effects. For example, environmental, cultural, health, social care, justice and security effects are included. This welfare and wellbeing consideration applies to the entire population that is served by the government, not simply taxpayers. A summary outline of the key steps in appraisal is shown below in Box 2. The first step in appraisal is to provide the rationale for intervention, a process covered more fully in chapters 2 to 4 and in the business case guidance. Appraisal is a two-stage process, the first stage of which is the consideration of a longlist of option choices and the selection of a rational and viable set of options for shortlist analysis. The options framework and filter process used for longlist analysis and shortlist selection is explained in Chapter 4. The second stage in appraisal is shortlist analysis using social cost benefit analysis (CBA) or social cost effectiveness analysis is explained in Chapter 5. In government as in many large private sector organisations, major changes involve a sequence of decisions at several levels. Typically, organisations will have their high level purpose expressed in some form of mission statement and may even talk about their intentions in terms of a vision. To make these rather high level statements into implementable programmes and projects, there needs to be another level of more specific strategic policy objectives. Realisation of these strategic objectives requires the organisation and planning of programmes and projects which are best managed in related strategic portfolios. Policies provide direction and high level objectives, these enduring parameters drive and direct the required changes the organisation is working to bring about. The definitions of key terms used in this guidance are given in Box 3. At each level of decision making, objectives are set so that the proposal being considered meets the needs placed upon it by a preceding, higher level proposal. For example, a programme to deliver signalling for a new railway line will be part of a wider programme to construct the fixed infrastructure the line requires. The signalling system will need to meet the requirements of both the rail infrastructure plan, and the operational needs of the new line, so that it enables safe running of planned train speeds and frequency. Individual projects within the signalling programme will each deliver a component of the overall system, and need to be understood in that context. Box 2. Summary Outline of Key Appraisal Steps Preparing the Strategic case which includes the Strategic Assessment and Making the Case for Change,[footnote 2] quantifies the present situation and Business as Usual (the BAU) and identifies the SMART objectives. This Rationale is the vital first step in defining what is to be appraised. Delivery of the SMART objectives must drive the rest of the process across all dimensions of the Five Case Model as explained throughout this guidance. Longlist analysis using the options framework filter considers how best to achieve the SMART objectives. Alternative options are viewed through the lens of public service provision to avoid bias towards preconceived solutions that have not been rigorously tested. A wide range of possibilities are considered, and a viable shortlist is selected including a preferred way forward. These are carried forward for further detailed appraisal. This process is where all complex issues are taken into account and is the key to development of optimum Value for Money proposals likely to deliver reasonably close to expectations. Shortlist appraisal follows and is at the heart of detailed appraisal, where expected costs and benefits are estimated, and trade-offs are considered. This analysis is intimately interconnected to the, Strategic, Commercial, Financial, and Management dimensions of the five case model, none of which can be developed or appraised in isolation. The use of Social Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) or Social Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) are the means by which cost, and benefit trade-offs, are considered. Identification of the preferred option is based on the detailed analysis at the shortlist appraisal stage. It involves determining which option provides the best balance of costs, benefits, risks and unmonetisable factors thus optimising value for money. Monitoring is the collection of data, both during and after implementation to improve current and future decision making. Evaluation is the systematic assessment of an intervention’s design, implementation and outcomes. Both monitoring and evaluation should be considered before, during and after implementation. Box 3. The meanings of widely used words as they are used in the Green Book A Policy is a statement of intent that is implemented through a procedure or a protocol and a deliberate system of principles to guide decisions and achieve rational outcomes. Policy provides the enduring parameters to police change. As well as setting strategic policy objectives it consists of all the elements below. Strategy is a plan of action designed to achieve an overall aim or objective. Derived originally from the art of planning and directing overall military operations and movements in a war or battle. A Strategic Portfolio consists of the programmes and projects necessary to make the changes required to deliver a strategic objective or objectives that contribute to delivery of policy. A Programme is an interrelated series of Sub-Programmes, Projects and related activities in pursuit of an organisation’s longer-term objectives. Programmes deliver outcomes through changes in services A Project is a temporary organisation designed to produce a specific predefined output at a specified time using predetermined resources. In a similar way, the government’s priorities are expressed in high level strategic objectives. To make them implementable these then drive the creation of strategic portfolios. These portfolios consist of the programmes and projects that are required to realise a strategic policy objective. Programmes identify and manage the interrelated projects and sub-programmes needed. In this example improved transportation services are a means to change economic and social outcomes. The required projects deliver changes in outputs, which when taken together support delivery of a change in rail service provision. The changes in services in the above example are expected to result in changes in economic and social outcomes. At each level of decision making the application of appraisal takes account of the wider context of which the proposal is a part. Appraisal should be proportionate to the costs and risks involved to both the public sector and to the public i.e. to society. The levels at which decisions occur are explained in more detail in Chapter 3.
2.2 Rationale
It is necessary to set out clearly the purpose of the intervention. This is known as the rationale, and in central government overall policy objectives are determined by ministers or other decision makers. Officials should identify and design alternative options to achieve these stated objectives. Advice must be based on objective analysis and real options. The rationale should explain how intended changes in outcomes will be produced by the recommended delivery options. The objective of the proposal may be to: maintain service continuity arising from the need to replace some factor in the existing delivery process or to improve the efficiency of service provision to increase the quantity or improve the quality of a service to provide a new service to comply with regulatory changes often a mix of all of all of these. It is however vitally necessary to be clear that the rationale may also be to improve the welfare efficiency of existing private sector markets, for example by making polluting organisations maintain standards and meet the cost of remediation to retain standards. It may also concern achievement of ethical distributional objectives for example fair access to health or education. It might involve providing social/public goods that are not provided at a satisfactory level by the market alone, for example justice services or social services.
2.3 Generating Options and longlist appraisal
Proposals should initially be considered from the perspective of the service needed to deliver the required policy outcome and not from the perspective of a preconceived solution or asset creation. This guards against thinking too narrowly or being trapped by preconceptions into missing optimum solutions. Longlist analysis and selection of the shortlist must use the options [footnote 3] in a workshop that including key experts and stakeholders as explained in more detail in Chapter 4. This method brings together the results of research, advice of experts, and knowledge of stakeholders. Provided the preparatory research has been carried out, and the right experts and stakeholders involved in the workshop, a wide variety of service scope, solution methods, service delivery methods, service implementation designs, and service funding options can be relatively rapidly appraised. Unintended collateral effects should also be considered including distributional effects that may unfairly impact particular parts of the UK, or groups within UK society. The reasons for inclusion or exclusion of option choices in the shortlist must be transparently recorded and cross referenced as a key part of longlist appraisal. Where relevant place based effects, and the duties placed on public officials by the Equality Act 2010 and effects on families’ when applying the family test 2010 and significant income distribution effects must be included proportionately in appraisal as set out in this guidance. Where they are not relevant a short explanation of why must be provided.
3.1 Policy and Strategic Planning an Overview
It is vital to understand both the context within which policy objectives are being delivered and the process of change that will result from the proposed intervention and cause the desired policy objectives. This process of causation is referred to in the Green Book as the logical process of change or simply process of change. The supplementary guidance on Business Cases covers in more detail the steps needed to develop, understand and explain, the objective basis of this expectation and provide reasonable evidence. It is the foundation of the rationale for intervention in the way that is proposed. Key issues that influence the wider debate which gives rise to policy development have been summarised in the mnemonic known as PESTLE which stands for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal issues. The translation of these issues through policy into outcomes is represented in Figure 2 below. Figure 2. Policy and the wider context Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal (PESTLE) Policy development must start with development of the rationale and be based on a sound understanding of the current position. This needs to be understood in objectively quantifiable terms so that the scope and key features of the issues are understood appropriately. Parts of government may from time to time adopt policy priorities and develop policy tests for use in support of these very specific objectives. Where they exist they need to be taken into account when considering policy formation. Such tests are considered at the preliminary research stage and as part of policy design, when considering objectives, and at the longlist stage discussed in more detail in Chapter 4. As indicated in Chapter 2, the development of policy into implementable solutions to deliver objectives, necessarily involves decisions at a number of levels of scale and delegation. Typically, progressing from high level statements of “mission” or purpose through more specific high level strategic policy objectives. Programmes are created to deliver these objectives, these Programmes contain Projects and related activities, that, taken together, are necessary to bring about the changes required to deliver the objectives. These programmes are best developed and managed through strategic portfolios which involve a common policy theme as illustrated in Figure 3. More detailed guidance on developing strategic portfolios, programmes and projects is available on the main Green Book webpage. Figure 3. From Policy to Outcomes At each of the policy development levels indicted above, the context in terms of objectives is provided by the preceding higher level. The nature of the issues being considered also changes dependent on this context and the scale of the proposal. Thus, programmes are concerned with identifying and managing projects and keeping track of the programme critical path and expected spending envelope. On the other hand, projects are concerned with delivery of specific changes in business outputs. Projects provide the detailed design of output changes and make requests for specific spending. At each level the thinking and development process follows the same high level policy development and review pattern known as the ROAMEF cycle as shown in Figure 4. The process proceeds from developing a rationale for the proposal, through identification of objectives, to options appraisal, monitoring and evaluation. More detailed supplementary guidance supporting the processes outlined above is provided by the family of business case guidance documents available from the Green Book web page. Figure 4. The ROAMEF Policy development cycle Monitoring and evaluation play an important role before, during and after implementation. The aim is to improve the design of policies, identify strategic objectives, to understand the mechanism of change and to support the management of implementation. Strategic portfolios identify, scope, plan, prioritise and manage the constituent programmes needed to deliver the objectives of the portfolio. Each strategic portfolio deals with a different aspect of policy delivery known as a theme and consists of related programmes. A generic example is provided at Figure 5 below and a hypothetical case study example at Figure 6 in Chapter 4. The Green Book supplementary guidance on business cases provides more detailed information. Figure 5. A generic example of the relationship between Strategy, Programmes and Projects Programmes initiate, align and monitor the constituent projects and related activities needed to deliver outputs that will produce the anticipated outcomes of the programme. These outputs may consist of new products, new or improved services, or changes to business operations. It is not until the projects deliver and implement the required output changes that the outcomes that cause the benefits of the programme can be realised. Programmes require a continuing process of review and alignment with policy objectives, to ensure that a programme and its projects remain linked to strategic objectives. This is because while they are implementing changes and improvements to business operations, they may need to respond to changes in external factors or to accommodate changes in policy objectives or strategies. The relationship between strategic portfolios, programmes and projects is illustrated by the generic Figure 5 above and the hypothetical practical example in Figure 6 in Chapter 4. The process of policy development should be based on objective evidence. Where assumptions are needed, they should be reasonable and justified by transparent reference to the research information they are based on. Information may come from a range of possible sources including, evaluation of previous interventions and what works, background academic research, specially commissioned research or surveys, and international comparisons. Research and due diligence activity should take place early on, before the process of more detailed policy development or business case development and appraisal begins. Box 4. Guidance and definitions and for managing successful Programmes and Projects A Programme is an interrelated series of Sub-Programmes, Projects and related events and activities in pursuit of an organisation’s long-term goals/objectives. Managing Successful Programmes (MSP), is an international standard originated by the UK government for programme management, it defines a programme as ‘a temporary, flexible organisation created to co-ordinate, direct and oversee the implementation of a set of related projects and activities in order to deliver outcomes and benefits related to the organisation’s strategic objectives’. Large projects are often referred to as programmes. In practice, the key differences between programmes and projects are: Programmes focus on the delivery of outcomes and projects on the delivery of outputs Programmes are comprised of enabling projects and activities Programmes usually have a longer lifespan than projects and usually consist of a number of tranches that take several years to deliver, and Programmes are usually more complex and provide an umbrella under which their enabling projects can be coordinated and delivered. There are different types of programmes, and the content of the supporting business case will be influenced by the nature of the change being delivered and the degree of analysis required. A Project is a temporary organisation that is needed to produce a specific predefined output or result at a pre-specified time using predetermined resources. Managing Successful Projects with PRINCE2 guidance defines a project as ‘a management environment that is created for the purpose of delivering one or more business products according to a specified business case’. Most projects have the following characteristics: a defined and finite life cycle clear and measurable inputs and outputs a corresponding set of activities and plans a defined amount of resource, and an organizational structure for governance and delivery. The potential for the proposal to have wider systemic effects across society, the economy and the environment should be considered whether or not they are intentional. Such collateral effects if significant must be taken into account at the longlist stage of the appraisal process, as explained in Chapter 4. Proposals with long term costs and benefits must consider whether longer term structural changes may occur in the economy or society. Such external structural shifts may arise from demographic, technological, environmental, cultural, or other similar external changes. These potential effects need to be considered and taken into account at the longlisting stage of proposals. At every level of the decision-making process, whether it concerns strategic portfolios of programmes, a programme, or a project, there is a need to set out the logical chain of cause and effect by which the SMART objectives will be produced. The need for this is widely recognised and, in some places, which lack the five-case model, and its strategic dimension, it has been catered for by approaches labelled as logic models or the theory of change. In the five-case model, this logical model of cause and effect is necessarily different at each level of the decision-making process. Strategic portfolios are concerned with significant strategic policy objectives, and managing the programmes that will deliver the outcomes required by the policy. Whereas programmes are concerned with organising their constituent projects and related activities. Projects will be concerned with the delivery of specific outputs that enable the programme of which they are a part to change outcomes in society and the economy. SMART objectives should as far as possible be expressed in terms of outcomes not service outputs. Projects should reflect the programme of which they are a part and they must deliver the outputs that the programme requires. A few projects may be stand alone and some projects within programmes may occasionally need to express some objectives as outcomes. Even where a proposal concerns creating or acquiring an asset, it should be appraised from the perspective of its capacity to deliver the required service levels. This helps to avoid biasing proposals towards initial solutions that may not have been sufficiently thought through. Transformation in Green Book terms refers to a fundamental change in the structure and operation of the subject that is to be transformed. This differs from a simple change in quantity. It refers to a radical qualitative change in state, so that the subject operates in a very different way or has different properties. An analogy is the change from cold water into ice which is fundamentally different from cold water in both its structure and mechanical properties. For example, internet shopping is transforming retail shopping and consequentially the nature of many high streets. Where proposals claim to be aiming for “transformational change” the nature of the change needs to be transparently explained. A credible explanation of the change process is required with the objective evidence on which it is based and objective support for assumptions made. Where the effects may be in practical terms irreversible, and intergenerational wealth transfers are involved, it is particularly important to take account of long-term structural changes and systemic impacts. In such cases sensitivity analysis and in many cases scenario analysis is important as explained in Chapters 4, 5 and 6. The purpose of longlist appraisal is to narrow down possible options to identify an optimum shortlist of viable options for detailed appraisal. Shortlist appraisal can only support choice between the options offered to it. The selection of a credible and viable list of the best options for detailed appraisal is therefore vital to avoid pointless analytical work to support a choice between suboptimal options at the shortlist stage. The primary focus of the business case process and appraisal is to identify and define the options and to support advice on prioritisation and choice. The objectives of a project are derived from the programme of which it is a part. The objectives of the programme reflect policy and are shaped by the strategic portfolio of which it is a part and the overall policy objectives determined by government. The focus is therefore on identifying the best possible options and choosing between them by identifying the optimum. Strategic policy justification is part of the high-level strategic analysis that takes place when overarching policy is being researched and options for policy at a high level are being explored. A hypothetical example showing the relationship between strategy programmes and policies is given in Figure 5 above, it is quoted from the programme business case guidance on the Green Book web page which isaccessible at this link.
3.2 The Five Case Model
The Five Case Model is the required framework for considering the use of public resources to be used proportionately to the costs and risks involved, and taking account of the context in which a decision is to be taken. The five “cases” or dimensions are different ways of viewing the same proposal, outlined in Box 5 below. The policy, analytical, commercial, financial, and delivery professions within the public service must avoid working in silos and work together on proposals from the outset. The five dimensions cannot be developed or viewed in isolation, they must be developed together in an iterative process because they are intimately interconnected. The five case model provides a universal thinking framework that if understood and applied correctly accommodates the widely varied features of any investment or spending proposal. There is no need to invent an additional case to accommodate a special feature of a proposal, the model takes account of such features which are expressed as either objectives to be achieved or as constraints that a proposal has to work within such as a legal, regulatory, or ethical consideration. Box 5. The Five Case Model Strategic dimension What is the case for change, including the rationale for intervention? What is the current situation? What is to be done? What outcomes are expected? How do these fit with wider government policies and objectives? Economic dimension What is the net value to society (the social value) of the intervention compared to continuing with Business As Usual? What are the risks and their costs, and how are they best managed? Which option reflects the optimal net value to society? Commercial dimension Can a realistic and credible commercial deal be struck? Who will manage which risks? Financial dimension What is the impact of the proposal on the public sector budget in terms of the total cost of both capital and revenue? Management dimension Are there realistic and robust delivery plans? How can the proposal be delivered? Strategic dimension The strategic dimension of the Five Case Model must identify “Business as Usual” (BAU) – that is the result of continuing without implementing the proposal under consideration. This must be a quantified understanding to provide a well understood benchmark, against which proposals for change can be compared. This is true even when to continue with BAU would be unthinkable. The strategic dimension is where external constraints that a proposal must work within are considered, for example, legal, ethical, political, or technological factors. External dependencies must also be identified, such as necessary infrastructure over which the proposal has no control. The outcome that the proposal is expected to produce is defined by a small number (up to 5 or at most 6) of SMART objectives that must be Specific Measurable Achievable Realistic and Time-limited. The SMART objectives selected in the strategic dimension must directly drive the rest of the process throughout the model. Crucially they provide the basis of option creation and the appraisal process in the economic dimension. Programme objectives should be expressed in terms of outcomes that the expected change in service provision is expected to produce. This is a key element in understanding and refining the objective which should be expressed numerically. The objectives must directly reflect the rationale for the proposal and be able to be monitored and evaluated. Box 6. Logical Change Process The Strategic dimension of the Business Case requires a Strategic Assessment key steps in which are: A quantitative understanding of the current situation known as Business As Usual (BAU) Identification of SMART objectives that embody the objective of the proposal Identification of the changes that need to be made to the organisation’s business to bridge the gap from BAU to attainment of the SMART objectives. These are known as the business needs. An explanation of the logical change process i.e. the chain of cause and effect whereby meeting the business needs will bring about the SMART objectives. This all needs to be supported by reference to appropriate objective evidence in support of the data and assumptions used including the change mechanisms involved. It should include: the source of the evidence; explanation of the robustness of the evidence; and of the relevance of the evidence to the context in which it is being used. This provides a clear testable proposal that can be the subject of constructive challenge and review. Single point estimates at this stage would be misleading and inaccurate and objectively based confidence ranges should be used. The key part of all proposals, whether strategic portfolio, programme or projects, is the strategic assessment which examines the current position (Business As Usual) and compares it with the desired outcome, as summarised by the SMART objectives. The gap which needs to be bridged between Business As Usual and the attainment of the SMART objectives represents the business needs. An objectively based understanding of how meeting the business needs will result in attainment of the SMART objectives, is a basic requirement – see Box 6 and the Green Book Supplementary Guidance on Business Cases concerning strategic assessment. From this early stage how a proposal fits with wider public policy and any potential impacts on the operations, responsibilities or budgets of other public bodies must be considered. Consultation and cooperative working between public bodies supports effective and efficient delivery of public services and avoids unnecessary waste and inefficiencies. Research, consultation and engagement with stakeholders, should be conducted from the earliest stage. This provides greater understanding of the current situation and potential opportunities for improvement including links to relevant policies. Economic dimension The economic dimension is the analytical heart of a business case where detailed option development and selection through use of appraisal takes place. The economic dimension of the business case is driven by the SMART objectives and delivery of the business needs that are identified in the strategic case as explained in Chapter 4. It estimates the social value of different options at both the UK level and, where necessary on different parts of the UK or on groups of people within the UK. Where overseas development assistance is concerned the value to the recipient country is relevant. The potential for the proposal to cause significant unintended consequences should also be considered and where they are likely they must be taken into account Longlist appraisal and selection of the shortlist is a crucial function of the economic dimension explained more fully in Chapter 4, and in the family of Business Case Guidance documents available from the Green Book web pages. The selection of a preferred option from the shortlist requires interaction between the strategic and economic dimension and the commercial, financial and management dimensions of the case. None of these can be considered in isolation, and the supplementary guidance on Business Cases should be followed to ensure that the proposal is developed in an integrated, way bringing together all of the dimensions together with the benefit of key stakeholder input. The selection of the preferred option from the shortlist uses social cost benefit analysis or where appropriate social cost effectiveness analysis as explained in Chapter 5. The value for money recommendation is based upon a range of factors including the net social value of the option including the costs of risk and residual optimism bias, the net whole life cost of the public resources employed, and the additional costs of including key objectives, the benefits of which are unquantifiable. The overall risk of the option to the public and the public sector is also an important consideration. Commercial dimension The commercial dimension concerns the commercial strategy and arrangements relating to services and assets that are required by the proposal and to the design of the procurement tender where one is required. The procurement specification comes from the strategic and economic dimensions. The commercial dimension feeds information on costs, risk management and timing back into the economic and financial dimensions as a procurement process proceeds. This is part of the iterative process of developing a proposal into a mature business case. The Cabinet Office Functional programmes can provide support and advice during appraisal e.g. the Commercial Function can support assessment of procurement decisions.[footnote 5] Financial dimension The financial dimension is concerned with the net cost to the public sector of the adoption of a proposal, taking into account all financial costs and benefits that result. It covers affordability, whereas the economic dimension assesses whether the proposal delivers the best social value. The financial dimension is exclusively concerned with the financial impact on the public sector. It is calculated according to National Accounts rules. Management dimension The management dimension is concerned with planning the practical arrangements for implementation. It demonstrates that a preferred option can be delivered successfully. It includes the provision and management of the resources required for delivery of the proposal and arrangements for managing budgets. It identifies the organisation responsible for implementation, when agreed milestones will be achieved and when the proposal will be completed. The management dimension should also include: the risk register and plans for risk management the benefit register the arrangements for monitoring and evaluation during and after implementation and any collection of data prior to implementation, including the provision of resources and who will be responsible The management dimension is completed more fully during the middle and latter stages of a proposal’s development into a full business case. The implications of the management dimension feed into the appraisal and must be reflected in the full versions of the economic, commercial and financial dimensions.
3.3 Regulatory Impact Assessments
Regulatory Impact Assessments (RIAs) are used to support the appraisal of new primary or secondary legislation, or in some cases the impact of non-legislative policy change. The Green Book should be used for the appraisal required for RIAs, in the same way as for spending proposals. It sets out the methodology for appraisal of social value and distributional effects. RIAs follow the same logic as spending and resource appraisals and make use of the five case model in their thinking. There needs to be the same rationale with clear policy objectives, and expected process of change and SMART policy objectives. Costs, benefits and risks to the public and those affected as well as to the public sector are relevant and where new policies are concerned, consideration of a range of options. The calculation of costs and benefits, as well as the detailed evidence base which supports RIAs, should be developed in accordance with Green Book methodology. For small regulatory changes standalone RIAs may not be required, though any analysis included to support these changes should be in line with Green Book methodology. The rules for the scrutiny and clearance processes, in England, for regulations with an impact on business above a certain value and methodology for calculating specific metrics relating to the impact on business, are set out in the Better Regulation guidance. The Better Regulation guidance reflects ministerial decisions on statutory reporting duties and may be periodically updated to reflect policy change.
This chapter sets out how to develop a rationale for intervention, generate a longlist of possible options to achieve objectives and filter them down to a shortlist suitable for detailed cost benefit or cost effectiveness analysis. These methods and principles apply when considering all significant proposals, for intervention for example regulatory...
Chapter 5 sets out how to appraise shortlist options. It covers assessment of costs and benefits, the treatment of equalities, place based appraisal, distributional analysis and adjustments for discounting, inflation, risk and uncertainty (including optimism bias) and distributional analysis. The main steps are highlighted in Box 11 below.
Box 11. Navigating the Appraisal Framework and the Shortlist
Rationale for intervention
•conduct the strategic assessment, research and understand the current position – Business As Usual
•establish rationale for intervention including the Evidence based Logical Change Process
•determine whether Place Based, Equalities, and/or Distributional Appraisal is required
Chapter 6 sets out the approach to the valuation of costs and benefits in more detail. This includes further explanation of opportunity costs, which costs and benefits to include and approaches to non-market valuation. It covers land use valuation, assets and infrastructure, valuation of risks to life and health, natural capital and travel time.
Chapter 7 outlines how to present appraisal results.
The role of appraisal and evaluation is to provide objective evidence and analysis that feeds information into the design, scrutiny and approval processes that support government decision making. Accordingly appraisal results should be presented transparently to show clearly the social value of alternative options in a consistent way.
The presentation of appraisal results is at the heart of the recommendation of the preferred option. Results should be clearly and transparently reported in summary form with clear cross references to more detailed tables and graphical presentation where appropriate, as well as sources for assumptions and data. Results should be supported by an executive summary that summarises the objective evidence, analysis and any recommendations. All tables and data including the appraisal summary table and key figures in the executive summary should be cross referenced to their sources in the main body of the business case, key data and assumptions should be identified and cross referenced to the original evidence and sources from which they are derived.
The executive summary should refer to:
•the strategic dimension of the case, and explain the strategic fit of the proposal with wider public policy and other proposals to which it is directly related, and should be revisited as part of the advice on a recommendation
•constraints and dependencies where relevant, and significant residual risks and uncertainties explained
Chapter 8 sets out the approach to monitoring and evaluation including different types of evaluation and uses before, during and after implementation.
Monitoring and evaluation should be part of the development and planning of an intervention from the start. They are important to ensure successful implementation and the responsible, transparent management of public resources. Guidance on conducting evaluation is contained in the Magenta Book.
Evaluation is a systematic assessment of an intervention’s design, implementation and outcomes. It involves:
•understanding how an intervention is being or has been implemented, what effects it had, for whom and why
•comparing what happens with what was expected under Business As Usual (the appropriate counterfactual)
•identifying what can be improved, estimating overall impacts and cost-effectiveness.
This Annex provides detail on specific approaches to non-market valuation techniques and generic values for use in appraisal. It covers:
•a range of environmental techniques and effects
•land values
•energy efficiency and Greenhouse Gases
•life and health
•travel time
- To secure benefit
- Incurred during delivery
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2 The Green Book Chapter 1: Introduction guidance on specific topics. When the Green Book is updated supplementary guidance must be realigned as required to ensure consistency across government...
