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  1. 1 day ago · There is a 39-in-100 chance that Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. See a new scenario. 538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,”...

    • G. Elliott Morris
  2. 1 day ago · Mr. Sosnik was a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000 and has advised more than 50 governors and U.S. senators. Nov. 1, 2024 The best evidence that American politics is ...

  3. 1 day ago · Control of the House, the Senate and the presidency are all up for grabs in the 2024 elections, a rare instance of Republicans and Democrats battling for all three levers of elected power in...

  4. 2 days ago · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

  5. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+). Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

  6. Aug 26, 2024 · The 2024 presidential election was already like none in living memory: a matchup between the sitting president and a former president. Then it got even more historically unusual.

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  8. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter.

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