Search results
It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter.
- 2020 Presidential Simulation
Select the Run Simulation button to conduct a simulated 2020...
- Split Electoral Votes Me/Ne
This creates multiple popular vote contests in these states,...
- Historical Elections
View a map, results and history from each of the 59 prior...
- Interactive Map Color Palette Options
Select a states with a Senate races. It will turn that...
- News
The 538 probabilistic forecast model relaunched Friday,...
- Historical Timeline
Choose a presidential election from the menu to view...
- States
Includes trends and polls for the 2024 election, as well as...
- Contact Your Senator
Mailing address, phone number, website, facebook and twitter...
- 2020 Presidential Simulation
Dec 19, 2023 · Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee also would each gain a new congressional seat, as would three mountain states: Arizona, Idaho, and Utah. These changes would solidify a shift in the regional balance of power.
View CNN’s Electoral College maps to explore the votes needed to win the US presidential election. For more information, visit cnn.com/election.
The Electoral College comprises a total of 538 members, with each state getting a total number of electoral votes equal to its congressional delegation and three additional electoral votes for ...
- Simulation 2: Full Generational Effects
- Simulation 3: Generational Effects Decline with Age
- Simulation 4: Post-Millennial Generations More Conservative
The U.S. electorate is not just changing by race and education but also by generation. In this simulation, we assume that the turnout rates of different race, education, gender, and age groups within states hold steady at the levels observed in the 2016 presidential election. We make a similar assumption about political preferences, but they are he...
Our third simulation modifies the full generational effects scenario to allow for the possibility that generations may become more conservative over the course of the life cycle. In this scenario, generations start in different places in terms of their political preferences but they undergo a similar conservatizing process as they age. Specifically...
Our fourth simulation considers the possibility that newer generations not yet fully in the electorate may not be as pro-Democratic as the Millennial generation. Specially, we assume that Gen Z members (and the as-yet unnamed generation behind them) will exhibit greater Republican preferences than the Millennials. In this scenario we set that diffe...
Oct 19, 2020 · In our 2018 report, we examined an array of future presidential election scenarios— from 2020 through 2036—that could arise as the demography of the nation and its 50 states changes over the next several decades 1. In this 2020 report, we update our electoral scenarios in several important ways.
1 day ago · 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
