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Dec 19, 2023 · Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee also would each gain a new congressional seat, as would three mountain states: Arizona, Idaho, and Utah. These changes would solidify a shift in the regional balance of power.
Oct 19, 2020 · This report explores how demographic changes could shape the next five presidential elections using national and state projections. The demographics we look at are race, age, education, gender, and generation, using a new set of projections for the nation and all 50 states.
- Simulation 2: Full Generational Effects
- Simulation 3: Generational Effects Decline with Age
- Simulation 4: Post-Millennial Generations More Conservative
The U.S. electorate is not just changing by race and education but also by generation. In this simulation, we assume that the turnout rates of different race, education, gender, and age groups within states hold steady at the levels observed in the 2016 presidential election. We make a similar assumption about political preferences, but they are he...
Our third simulation modifies the full generational effects scenario to allow for the possibility that generations may become more conservative over the course of the life cycle. In this scenario, generations start in different places in terms of their political preferences but they undergo a similar conservatizing process as they age. Specifically...
Our fourth simulation considers the possibility that newer generations not yet fully in the electorate may not be as pro-Democratic as the Millennial generation. Specially, we assume that Gen Z members (and the as-yet unnamed generation behind them) will exhibit greater Republican preferences than the Millennials. In this scenario we set that diffe...
1 day ago · Arizona voted for Biden by a narrow 0.3-point margin, giving its 11 electoral votes to a Democratic candidate for the first time since 1996.. Looming large in this election is the issue of ...
CNN's Road to 270 interactive. It takes at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Plot each candidate’s best path to victory on our interactive map below. Select a starting map. Build...
Sep 25, 2020 · When voters in November pick among the candidates for state legislatures, they are choosing the people who will make the new electoral maps for congressional elections.
Jan 25, 2018 · See how seven different ways of drawing congressional districts across the country — from pretty fair to seriously gerrymandered — could change the partisan and racial makeup of the U.S. House.
