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- A major strategic crisis is brewing across the Taiwan Strait, one which threatens to be significantly more serious than earlier crises of the 1950s and mid-1990s. Current tensions between China and Taiwan, and the fear that a major conflict could erupt, are generally attributed to Beijing’s growing assertiveness.
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Aug 5, 2022 · China’s missile launches into Taiwan’s coastal waters this week have underlined the risks to global supply chains from any sustained escalation of tensions between Beijing and Taipei.
- Introduction
- The Contingency
- Warning Indicators
- Implications For U.S. Interests
- Preventive Options
- Mitigating Options
- Recommendations
The risk of a serious crisis between China and Taiwan is growing. Cross-strait relations have chilled in recent years as a result of the unwillingness of Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen to embrace the so-called 1992 Consensus—an understanding that was the basis for a warmer relationship between Beijing and Taipei under Tsai’s predecessor, Ma Ying-j...
Three broad developments are increasing the risk of a cross-strait crisis in the coming months. The first relates to the important role domestic politics play in China and the potential calculations of the leadership. During a January 2019 speech marking the fortiethanniversary of the mainland’s 1979 “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan,” President Xi...
Various warning indicators are associated with each of the three contributing developments to a cross-strait crisis discussed above. For domestic developments in Taiwan, the most obvious relate to Tsai’s statements, the approval ratings of the DPP ahead of the next elections, changing public opinion (particularly in relation to China), and the emer...
A cross-strait crisis in the run-up to Taiwan’s 2020 elections or shortly after would present serious risks to U.S. interests. At a minimum, a cross-strait crisis could result in a broader freeze in U.S.-China relations, which could complicate other important issues—regionally and globally—in the relationship. For example, it could exacerbate tensi...
The United States has several preventive options to try to avoid another cross-strait crisis. These options include the following: 1. Encourage Beijing and Taipei to avoid a breakdown in cross-strait relations. Washington could encourage Beijing and Taipei to improve their channels of communication in hopes of avoiding a breakdown in cross-strait t...
If China intensifies pressure on Taiwan ahead of the island’s 2020 elections, a number of mitigating options would be available to U.S. policymakers to help avert and de-escalate a crisis. These options include the following: 1. Seek to defuse the crisis diplomatically.Washington could attempt to facilitate communication between Beijing and Taipei ...
The situation across the Taiwan Strait is changing for several reasons, and the danger of a crisis appears to be growing as Taiwan’s 2020 elections approach. Washington should aim to strengthen deterrence while working within the context of a long-standing policy that helps maintain stability and affords considerable flexibility. Within this contex...
- Michael S. Chase
Oct 24, 2024 · As China continues its pressure campaign against Taiwan and channels of cross-Strait communication continue to wither, the risk of miscalculation or unwanted escalation will likely grow in the months ahead. Going forward, the United States should encourage both sides to practice restraint.
Jan 11, 2024 · Taiwan is the most likely flashpoint for a U.S.–China conflict, unmatched in its combustible mix of conflicting interests, high stakes, and eroding trust and assurances. A full–blown war over Taiwan has become a startling possibility.
Oct 27, 2023 · Tensions are rising over Taiwan. The fabric of political understandings that contributed to cross-strait peace and security for decades has begun to unravel as China’s power and assertiveness grows, competition between the U.S. and China spreads, and the Taiwanese people develop a distinct identity increasingly disassociated from the mainland.
Jul 1, 2024 · The ongoing dispute has led to heightened military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait, which geographically separates mainland China from the island of Taiwan. In the First Taiwan Strait Crisis...
The risk of war over Taiwan has grown in recent years.1 Should tensions over control of the island spiral into direct conflict between China and the U.S., two nuclear pow-ers and the world’s two largest economies, the impact would fall on a spectrum between profound and cataclysmic.
