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Jan 11, 2024 · Washington and Beijing have avoided a severe crisis and conflict over Taiwan for many decades thanks to a bilateral understanding that was part of the 1971 normalization of Sino–American relations. The United States committed to not seeking the permanent separation of Taiwan from China.
The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War. To preserve peace in the Taiwan Strait, Robert D. Blackwill and Philip Zelikow propose the United States make clear...
Aug 10, 2022 · Stanford scholar explains. In this explainer, Stanford scholar Oriana Skylar Mastro offers a brief history of the China and Taiwan dispute, the evolution of U.S. diplomacy in the region, and what signal Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit sends.
Jun 27, 2023 · While a military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait is neither imminent nor inevitable, the U.S. and China are drifting toward a war over Taiwan. U.S. policy will need to evolve to contend...
- The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War
- FOREWORD
- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
- Robert D. Blackwill and Philip Zelikow
- THREE SCENARIOS FOR A MILITARY CONFLICT OVER TAIWAN
- SCENARIO 1: CHINA INVADES TAIWAN’S PERIPHERY
- PROPOSITION 1: DEFENSE STRATEGIES AND CAMPAIGN PLANS
- PROPOSITION 2: ALLIED PLANNING
- SOME CRUCIAL ISSUES FOR FURTHER WORK
- U.S. POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS
- U.S. VITAL NATIONAL INTERESTS AND TAIWAN
Robert D. Blackwill and Philip Zelikow The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government oficials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in or...
It is something of a cliché, but no less true for being so, to note that the relationship between the United States and China will go a long way toward determining the character of this century. The challenge for the two countries will be to pursue their often diverging interests and goals in a manner that does not lead to direct confrontation and ...
We commend the 109 members of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Study Group on U.S. policy toward Taiwan for their insights during our eight sessions over the past four months and are grateful for Gary Roughead’s co-chairmanship of the meetings. We appreciate Raymond F. Burghardt, Evan A. Feigenbaum, Michael J. Green, Patri-cia M. Kim, Evan Me...
“Great is the guilt of an unnecessary war.” —John Adams
Before going further, both of us wish to stress that, in preparing this report, we have not had access to or made any use of classified national security information of the United States.118 The prevailing assumption among experts we respect is that China would try to coerce Taiwan into a more pliable posture, but that this coercion probably would ...
China is already engaged in a campaign of constant military harass-ment at the edges of territory under Taiwanese control. These activi-ties are often referred to as gray zone conflict. For example, Chinese aircraft enter Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, obliging Taiwan to send up fighter aircraft—then the intruders return to Chi-nese airs...
We begin with the observation that defense strategies are campaign plans, in outline. If outsiders (or insiders) do not understand the likely campaign plan, they cannot comprehend the strategy. If outsiders (or insiders) cannot judge whether the campaign plan is credible, including the arrangements with allies and the suficiency of forces, then the...
Our second observation is that, to have a credible campaign plan related to Taiwan, the planning needs to include participation and agreement by at least Taiwan and Japan. Oficials can debate whether or how to include countries such as South Korea, or the Philippines, or Indonesia, or Malay-sia, or Australia, or others. As we argue, an appropriate ...
We briefly acknowledge some of the topics that, if ideas like ours gain traction, will warrant substantial further work. First, the Biden admin-istration would need to decide how to devise a sustainable policy of arms sales to help defend Taiwan. We believe that the recent emphasis on asymmetric defensive systems is appropriate. It means the United...
Earlier in this report, we discuss the security elements of U.S. policy toward Taiwan and propose a variety of policy prescriptions in that domain. Here we detail the diplomatic and economic actions that would take place alongside the security policy prescriptions. Consider how U.S. policy toward Taiwan afects U.S.-China rela-tions. Of course, the ...
We define U.S. vital national interest narrowly—“necessary to safe-guard and enhance Americans’ survival in a free and secure nation.” Vital is not the same as important. A vital interest is one for which the United States could properly order its citizens to go to war. In practice, such a vital national interest should be defined with great care. ...
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Feb 28, 2019 · A new memo from the Center for Preventive Action by Michael S. Chase details how the United States can prevent a cross-strait crisis or de-escalate one should it occur.
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Mar 10, 2022 · If the United States chooses to intervene in such a conflict on Taiwan’s behalf, it can likely prevent China from invading Taiwan but might not be able to prevent Taiwan from being coerced.
