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- Overview
- The eight ball says: Don't count on it
- Mega populations
- Will the underdogs have their day?
- Africa's potential
- America's game?
- The eight ball says: Very doubtful
Football is the world's most popular sport, but success and riches have been localised to Europe and South America for generations.
The majority of football tourism, too, centres around a handful of leagues and countries, with the Premier League dominating.
But will football's powerhouses de-centralise away from traditional zones? Will we see national team and domestic might transfer into Africa, Asia or North America?
Or will leagues like the Premier League merely move abroad?
•Community or commodity? Who will own football in 20 years?
As part of the Future of Football project, we asked the magic eight ball three major questions about the globality of the game over the next two decades...
"Football makes people dream. We have allowed children to dream. Children in Morocco and around the world dream of winning the World Cup.
"We have made a fantastic achievement but we want to do that again. If we can keep reaching the semi-final or quarter final regularly, one day we will win the World Cup."
When it comes to untapped potential, the mega populations of China and India seem an obvious place to start. With almost three billion people living in those two counties, the power of probability says there must be enough talent to discover and harness inside those borders to challenge on the world stage.
However, in both countries the football landscape is complex.
China's substantial financial foray into football in the middle of the last decade sent shockwaves through the game, attracted star names to the Chinese Super League but always seemed too extreme to last - and so it proved. Perhaps that is a warning to the players heading to play in the Saudi Arabian league. With the political drive behind the China boom waning and even eight-time champions Guangzhou succumbing to financial crisis, the growth of the game has slowed.
There isn't a single Chinese player in any of Europe's top five leagues and the impact of the investment hasn't translated to the international stage. Defeats to Vietnam and Oman were low points during their failure to qualify for the last World Cup, while they rank a lowly 81st in FIFA's standings.
India are even worse off, down in 101st. Stephen Constantine, an Englishman who has managed the country twice and coached in the Indian Super League last season, explained to Sky Sports the wide-ranging issues preventing India from converting their huge population figure into a successful football system.
Image: Stephen Constantine has had two spells as India national team manager
Of course, size isn't everything, as Morocco's third-place play-off conquerors Croatia proved in Qatar. Impressively, it's not the first time that country has overperformed given the context of its population of four million.
Even smaller, Iceland - with not even 400,000 inhabitants - have also punched above their weight in recent years, incredibly reaching the quarter-finals of Euro 2016, their first-ever major tournament, before qualifying for the World Cup for the first time in 2018.
So what could smaller nations, hoping to make their mark on the world stage, learn from those exploits?
Lars Lagerback - a key figure in that Icelandic improvement, taking charge in 2011 before leading the team in France alongside co-head coach Heimir Hallgrimsson - says a combination of good coaching from an early age, player exposure to high-quality foreign leagues, organisation on and off the pitch, and some good luck with a talented generation are all essential ingredients.
Image: Iceland stunned England at Euro 2016 - but sustaining that level is difficult for smaller nations
Once those elements are in place and qualification is achieved, the challenge of tournament football presents new problems. In that domain, experience is key, says Lagerback, who had taken Sweden to a country-record five major tournaments in a row before working for Iceland.
Image: What would it take for an African nation such as Senegal to win the World Cup?
Lagerback's journeys in international football also took him to a brief stint with Nigeria at the 2010 World Cup. It was ultimately an unsuccessful campaign but he was left with a lasting impression that the African nation could perhaps be the real sleeping power in the world's game.
"In Nigeria they have such a great potential [when it] comes to players that if they get a little bit more organised, both around the team and inside the team, there you have a country with a huge potential to do well," he said.
"It's 12 years since I was in Nigeria but the players, they were really good."
Image: "USA's men's team has the potential to make a run for the World Cup title very soon," says Cindy Parlow Cone, head of US Soccer
Perhaps the country which ticks all of these factors discussed above - population, an emerging talent pool, tournament experience and an increasingly organised, driven structure based around good coaching - is the USA.
With the States co-hosting the next World Cup, it's no secret there has been added impetus in their desire to make sure they perform well at that tournament. And if it is a competition in which they can perform well and spring a few surprises, it could well be the launchpad and inspiration for greater things to come.
Cindy Parlow Cone, the president of US Soccer, is bullish about the potential for the current generation of players and what they could achieve in 2026.
"Our men's national team is young and dynamic and so fun to watch and to see their growth leading up to the World Cup last year, throughout the World Cup, and then now, those players looking forward to 2026... I agree with all the studies. I haven't done any studies on this and I might be a little biased, but I agree that our men's team has the potential to make a run for the World Cup title here very soon.
"That World Cup is going to be the biggest event the world has ever seen and having the World Cup in our home country is really going to help with all of that [development] at every level."
The 39th game debate has come and gone before - the idea of Premier League clubs playing an extra round of fixtures in a foreign country. The 2008 launch of the concept was met with some support, but largely opposition and the idea has been dormant for the past 15 years.
Quite simply, the Premier League's massive spike in popularity since 2008 means the division does not need to play matches abroad, with Italy and Spain playing their equivalent of the Community Shield in Saudi Arabia in recent years. The Premier League's current stance is that they have no plans to take games abroad.
Yet, enter the Premier League Summer Series: the largest export of England's top-flight to a foreign country for pre-season action. Nearly a third of the Premier League clubs played multiple fixtures against each other in the United States earlier this summer in a move that looked, to many, like a dip in the ocean as to potential regular matches abroad.
This is not the first time the Premier League has put its name on a pre-season tournament. The Asia trophy took place on a bi-annual basis between 2003 and 2019 and then Premier League chief executive Richard Scudamore said its success would spark similar tournaments taking place in other continents.
Image: Seven Premier League sides took part in the summer series
So why is the Premier League committing more energy - and teams - to pre-season tournaments abroad?
Throughout the analysis and discussions, sporting elements were the first and foremost priority. The long-term goal is to have 50 national teams and 50 clubs competing at the highest level of both...
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