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- Winds from the Arctic will bring some very cold weather early next week. There will be some widespread frosts with temperatures as low as -10 degrees Celsius in rural parts of the UK. Snow could cause some disruption initially for northern areas but there could be snow elsewhere from midweek.
www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/67935835Much colder weather with snow on the way for UK - BBC Weather
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Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the...
- Weather and climate change - Met Office
There will be a good deal of dry, warm, and settled weather...
- Is the UK winter going as forecast? | Official blog of the ...
As we are all aware, so far this winter, the UK, has had a...
- Weather and climate change - Met Office
Oct 11, 2022 · Forecasts hint at abnormal UK winter: what’s the long-range outlook? Winter is still a long way off, but the early signs suggest a notable deviation from the norm. Can we expect a warmer winter than usual in the UK, or a colder one?
- Environmental Expert
Cloud cover will vary, with cloudier weather expected in the north and west, while clearer skies are likely in the south and east. Temperatures will be around or a little below average for the...
Jan 29, 2024 · As we are all aware, so far this winter, the UK, has had a wet and stormy December followed by a colder spell in January. This type of weather is consistent with what we would expect during...
- NWP Seasonal Forecasts
- Enso
- Anomalously Warm Sub-Tropical North Atlantic
- Soil Moisture
- Madden Julian Oscillation
- Analogs
- Summer Forecast Month by Month
There is a range of seasonal models that have forecast charts of mean temperature, precipitation and pressure /heights available for the each of the 3 summer months. These get updated every month, the latest was issued earlier in May. Multi-model seasonal forecast charts
One of the first things we look at to construct a seasonal forecast is the forecast for ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). El Niño, the warm phase of ENSO, is the warming of the equatorial Pacific. It has been one of the main players in influencing global weather patterns over the last year, exacerbating background warming from climate change by ...
Another thing we are looking at, that could influence and shape the weather patterns over the North Atlantic and Europe through the second half of the summer season, more particularly August, is strengthening La Niña conditions coupled with sub-tropical North Atlantic Ocean temperatures which have been at record highs for over a year. There has bee...
Dry soils encourage anomalously high temperatures during the summer months, because when the ground is wet the sun’s heat is mostly taken up by evaporating the moisture rather than going into heating the ground up. Whereas dry ground readily absorbs heat and radiates it back to the air above. Across much of Iberia, away from the north, the ground i...
The MJO is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical convection. It differs from ENSO in being a travelling pattern across the warm tropical oceanic areas of the globe rather than the standing pattern of El Nino / La Nina over the tropical Pacific. It is characterised by an eastward progression of large regions of either e...
Years with a similar El Nino to La Nina transition: we can use previous years (analogs) where similar Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) decreases were noted between the previous winter and the upcoming summer. 1998 is a strong analog year: going from a strong El Nino to strong La Nina in the same year, the Nino last winter was very strong/strong. We can add...
June – unsettled & cool first half or two-thirds, but heat may arrive later in month
This month it may take a while for any real heat to arrive, with low pressure tending to limit progress north of heat that may build over the continent, but it could turn hotter late in the month. There is reasonable confidence that high pressure will be located the west or southwest of the UK and low pressure close the north or northeast in the first 7-10 days. This suggest the flow will be from the west or sometimes northwest. Temperatures remaining around average, perhaps slightly below in...
July – very warm or hot month, with high pressure often in charge
Overall signal from seasonal models (albeit not strong) and best analog years is for high pressure to be close to or over NW Europe and lower pressure towards Iceland. How far north and east high pressure influences uncertain and may fluctuate. But it appears high pressure may be a dominant feature of the weather bringing dry spells through much of the month, though Scotland could be wetter closer to lower pressure. Likely a very warm month overall, perhaps hot at times in the south. There wi...
August – very warm month, unsettled & wetter towards second half
The evolution for the month of August, as would be expected two months away, is less clear than for June and July. The cross-model signal for August is for lower pressure towards Iceland and mid-North Atlantic and higher pressure over mainland Europe. With overall signal for pressure to not be as high as July over UK, perhaps less settled that July, with more chance of rain, but more humid too with the flow from the southwest or, as times, south. The expected active hurricane season may bring...
Jun 6, 2024 · AccuWeather’s Winter Center provides both national and local 24-hour snowfall forecast maps, as well as the National Weather Service Snow Depth map.
May 31, 2024 · Seasonal weather forecast for the UK. Easy to understand discussion updated for winter, spring, summer, and autumn.
