Search results
2 days ago · It will always contain the most recent data from the model. 1. The model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast 2 and the methodology is largely the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020. Other changes from 2020 are documented here. And an archive of the Biden-Trump forecast can be ...
2 days ago · 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
- G. Elliott Morris
2 days ago · Our prediction model shows the chances Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have of winning the contest to be America's next president.
2 days ago · A statistical model is used to estimate the “true” voting intention, given recent polls. The model takes into account differences in methodology between polls and the partisan tilt of ...
6 days ago · This prediction model has also placed Trump ahead in some of the key battleground state, making things even more interesting at this time amid the US elections. Donald Trump has been placed ahead in a latest election model, with an 18-point lead nationally in the US elections against Kamala Harris.
2 days ago · Aug. 1, 2024 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60% Harris 48.6% Trump 46.0% Oct. 16, 2024 leader Oct. 16, 2024 leader Harris Harris +2.6. KEY. ESTIMATE. 95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added ...
Sep 29, 2024 · Harris won all seven swing states 15,273 times out of 70,000 simulations of Silver's model run on Sunday. The next most likely scenario is that Trump wins all seven swing states.
